What is the threat of Russian sanctions on Turkey?

Ukraine’s economy was claimed to be tightly connected to Russia and was not supposed to be able to survive the falling out between the neighboring states two years ago. The same is now being said about Russian-Turkish relations today.

Turkish goods exported to Russia:

Textile and textile goods, vehicles and machinery, chemical products and groceries.
The lion’s share belongs to the textile, leather and food industries, the service industry includes tourism.

The tourist sector involves more than 2 million employees (out of the 77 million population of Turkey). These two million people provide almost all taxes to the state treasury – 60% in the overall economy. The country is very popular among tourists; it is the sixth most visited country in the world.

Nonetheless, the lack of Russian tourists does not pose a threat tourism in Turkey. The resorts of the “country of four seas” are filled with Germans, Bulgarians, Iranians, Ukrainian, Azerbaijani and by Turks themselves.

The total share of industry in the Turkish economy makes up about 33%. The first place is taken by the heavy industry (mining, chemical, automotive and energy). Production in light industry could not withstand competition from cheaper Chinese manufacturers and has declined since 2007.

Russian goods imported to Turkey:

Fuel and energy products (more than 62%), metal products (28.1%), chemical products (4%), wood, cellulose and paper products (2.4%), agricultural products (1.6%).

The most urgent cause for debate on the topic of whether Russia and Turkey will fall out is the issue of the “Turkish stream”.

The alternative pipeline had to pass under the Black Sea from the Anapa region to Turkey, bypassing Ukraine. The pipeline had to be built at the expense of the Russian Federation at a substantial discount from the Turkish side (subsequently Turkey was going to get significant savings when paying for gas for the year – up to US$1 billion). According to experts, the project has been more dead than alive for more than a year.

At the beginning of October 2015, the President of Turkey announced Turkey was the major buyer of Russian gas, but if necessary, it could get it from many other sources. The most attractive gas supplier in terms of economy is Iran. Moreover, on November 26, 2015 because of the destruction of the Russian Su-24 by Turkish military aircraft, Russia announced it had stopped work on the “Turkish stream”.

Another obstacle in Russian-Turkish relations is building the “Akkuyu” nuclear power plant (project works have been carried out since 2010).

The construction of the Akkuyu station was undertaken by Atomstroyexport – a subsidiary company of Rosatom. A company owned by Rosatom was supposed to manage the station.
The modern world does not suffer from a lack of contractors nowadays, so it is a big question who is going to lose more in this situation.

Therefore, the total loss of Turkey, according to the experts’ calculations, will reach about US$100 billion dollars in 10 years. However, Russia will lose the same sum because it will get the identical reply to its sanctions.

Let us not forget that Turkey is a NATO member. According to the Article Five of the Collective Security Treaty – the attack on the ally is considered as an attack on the entire block. Therefore, Russia has to think twice before using its favorite practice of aggressive war, especially against a NATO member.

Ukraine should not worry about a possible shift in the political course of Turkey to a different direction. The NATO treaty works here as well, while we are supported by the US, no acts of provocation from Turkey are expected.